February 4, 2026
By Tom Raquer
MEMO: To All Strategists
The balance of power in the world shifts dramatically. A crucial question arises: What happens when a once-great country clings to old ideas as it falls? This worry is especially important at this moment. The United States is now in the winter of the Fourth Turning. This is a term used by Strauss and Howe. This analysis is mostly about the U.S.’s ongoing involvement in Venezuela. This situation clearly shows how a fading hegemonic order tries to keep its power amid chaos.
What MBTI Strategists Do and How They Work
In the complex field of geopolitical analysis, points of view are crucial. MBTI (Myers-Briggs Type Indicator) Strategists, especially INTJs, ENTJs, and INTPs, have a unique way of looking at complicated systems. They don’t just see history as a series of separate events. They see it as a tapestry of repeating patterns and themes that endure over time.
These strategists think that analyzing things well depends on seeing how different systems are connected. We can see the U.S. intervention in Caracas not just as a tactical move. It is also part of a larger historical story that shapes our world. The Sovereignty Audit is a very important tool here. It shows how well a country can stay independent and legitimate. It also highlights the external and internal forces affecting U.S. actions in Venezuela.
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The Sovereignty Audit: Looking at Our Current Situation
The Sovereignty Audit is an effective tool. It assesses how well a country can handle internal and external problems. This audit examines four key factors—mandate, solvency, reciprocity, and sustainability—and assigns each a score from 1 to 10. A nation with higher scores has more stable and resilient governance.
Looking at the Gateways to Sovereignty in Caracas
The Sovereignty Audit shows that the U.S. position on Venezuela has some serious problems:
1. Mandate Gate (Score: 3/10)
A real legislative mandate is necessary for real governance. The U.S. executive’s tendency to ignore constitutional checks, like the War Powers Act, demonstrates that they value short-term power. Ignoring these checks compromises long-term stability. People are less to trust institutions, which makes them doubt and question things. This makes it harder to restore order and safety.
2. Solvent Gate (Score: 2/10)
The story of “taking the oil” is incomplete. It doesn’t explain the challenge of obtaining oil in Venezuela. To extract and refine oil, you need significant investment in infrastructure and technology. The current operations just don’t have that money. This mistake not only wastes valuable resources but also pushes the economy closer to collapse, worsening the humanitarian crisis.
3. The Reciprocity Gate (Score: 4 out of 10)
The MAGA Fracture shows that military leaders and regular Americans don’t always see eye to eye. Trust breaks down when people believe that military actions are driven by the interests of the elite. They feel these actions do not align with the goals of the people as a whole. This widening gap weakens society, making it harder for people to work together to solve problems.
4. Sustainability Gate (Score: 5/10)
The U.S. military is good at tearing down buildings and taking over land. However, it has a hard time rebuilding countries with many different cultures. Without a clear plan for long-term rebuilding, getting involved in Caracas could worsen social divisions. It could also cost taxpayers a lot of money back home.
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The Donroe Corollary: Changing Global Strategies
The new Donroe Corollary shows how important it is for the U.S. to have more power in Latin America now that China and other countries are growing. Many people believe this imperial mindset is increasingly conflicting with a world order that values national independence. Countries now rank this over imperialist strategies. This is a closer look at what this approach means:
1. Reaffirmation of Regional Supremacy
The U.S. wants to get back its historical power in Latin America by supporting opposition groups in Venezuela. But, this way of thinking runs counter to the region’s strong wish for independence and self-determination.
2. Fighting outside forces
The Donroe Corollary shows that the U.S. wants to keep foreign competition out of the Western Hemisphere. Heavy-handed military tactics often make people angry. This provokes Latin American countries to pursue more independence and reduce their connection to U.S. interests.
3. Putting military action first
Using military power rather than diplomacy to solve problems shows old-fashioned thinking. These kinds of actions work in the short term. But, they can hurt relationships with regional partners in the long term. This makes it harder to work together in the future.
4. Effects that last a long time
Past interventions show a worrying pattern of ongoing instability stemming from reliance on military solutions. This dependence makes it harder to build partnerships based on trust and cooperation, which are necessary for long-term engagement.
What Americans Think About What People Think
People’s feelings about U.S. involvement in Caracas are akin to the chaotic events of the Fourth Turning. In these events, a few powerful elites make decisions. This happens rather than the whole country agreeing on a course. Recent polls show that about 40% of Americans want Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro to step down. Yet, a large majority (56%) are worried that the U.S. has gone too far with military interventions. People are growing increasingly tired of involvement in foreign affairs. This indicates they want a more careful, controlled approach to international issues.
Interestingly, a lot of Republicans (78%) support efforts to get rid of Maduro. Democrats, on the other hand, usually don’t want the U.S. to get involved in military conflicts and want the U.S. to be less involved in global politics. This split shows that elite interests, not a shared national vision, often shape the complexities of public opinion.
Also, the return of the Monroe Corollary, which stresses U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere, elicits varied reactions. Some people think it’s a necessary response to more competition. They particularly consider the competition from China. Others question the need for more interventions. This warning shows that people are worried about U.S. actions in Latin America and their long-term effects on sovereignty. It is a turning point for American foreign policy.
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LEARNING FROM THE PAST: WHAT HAPPENED IN 1898 AND 2026
The similarities between 2026 and 1898 reveal a problem that has always been part of U.S. foreign policy. The Spanish-American War was a turning point in the shift from a Republic to an Empire. The wish to win led to greater distrust of institutions. The current intervention in Caracas is akin to past overreaches. Attempting to enforce outdated territorial boundaries by force shows they haven’t adapted to modern realities.
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POLICY SUGGESTION FOR THE COMING SPRING AND 1ST TURNING
America needs to realize that the old ways of doing things no longer work. If it wants to stay a global leader, it must adapt to change. To thrive in this new era, we need to build a foundation on civic renewal. We must also focus on national unity and strategic independence. Here are some policy suggestions that you can use:
1. Civic Renewal
Start a national conversation to engage people and restore public trust in public institutions. Create programs that focus on civic education. These initiatives should promote community involvement to foster a sense of responsibility. This enables people to help run their local government.
2. Unity in the Country
Focus on policies that bring people together and make everyone feel welcome. To handle polarization at home, create platforms that guarantee diverse voices are heard in political discussions. For example, community forums can be established. These forums encourage people with different points of view to talk to one another. They also help people better understand each other.
3. Strategic Independence
Change U.S. foreign policy to rely less on military action and more on diplomacy. Dialogue should respect the goals of Latin American countries. Building partnerships based on mutual respect and real cooperation should be encouraged.
4. Making alliances and partnerships stronger
Use smart diplomacy to build relationships with ASEAN countries and Latin America. Focus on common goals that help keep the region stable and encourage global cooperation. Put dialogue and building trust over the long term first.
5. Promoting a wider range of economic activities
Encourage a variety of business partnerships to reduce your reliance on a single market. Invest in local businesses and projects. This builds relationships that help both sides. It empowers communities and strengthens economies across borders.
6. Encouraging cooperation in technology
As partners, not competitors, we work together on technology and new ideas. These kinds of partnerships can lead to progress that benefits everyone and makes the U.S. a helpful ally.
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A CALL OUT FOR ALL STRATEGISTS
For all strategists navigating the complex world of politics, the intervention in Caracas serves as a warning. It is also a call to action. This is an important time. We need to rethink how we do things. They must align with the world, which is becoming more divided.
We can revise our policy strategies. We can improve our engagement with other countries. This can be achieved by using analytical frameworks grounded in new strategic analysis and the Sovereignty Audit. We need to start a national conversation about civic renewal and mutual respect. This conversation should be free from the oligarchic forces that have shaped U.S. actions abroad.
I ask you, my fellow strategists, to share your ideas and work together. We can work together to improve our plans. Let’s strengthen our partnerships. We should find a way to achieve strategic autonomy that respects the independence of all countries. This must be done while also addressing the urgent problems ahead. The future is in our hands. Let’s use our analytical tools on purpose as we work toward a future where everyone works together.
Let’s encourage new ideas, put working together first, and build partnerships that respect the rights of all countries. We can face important problems together and change America’s place in the world for years to come by doing this. We can work together to build a future where cooperation, understanding, and respect for one another guide our actions. This will lead to lasting peace and cooperation across borders.
Lt Col (ret) Tom Raquer, USAF
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