Tag: center of gravity
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YOU (USA)HAVE THE WATCH — THEY HAVE THE TIME (IRAN)
The United States measures progress in days. Iran measures it in endurance. That is the mismatch. And in war, mismatches decide outcomes. Because the actor who controls time does not need to win the battlefield. It only needs to make sure that the war does not end on the opponent’s terms. The United States may…
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HOW CHINA SEES THIS WAR
This is not a war China needs to win. It is a system already producing pressure. One side is engaged in the fight. The other is positioned to gain from the network’s evolution. And in prolonged conflict— Advantage does not always go to the side that acts. It often goes to the side that can…
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THE END OF THE MARITIME SECURITY FRAMEWORK
Key Points * The global system depends on secure maritime trade routes * U.S. power has underwritten that system since World War II * This role is a strategic choice, not a permanent condition * Internal pressures are now constraining external commitments * Chokepoint disruptions reveal systemic vulnerability The system is shifting from stabilising to…
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The Sectarian Fault Line
The war with Iran is not yet a Sunni–Shia war. But history suggests that conflicts in the Middle East rarely remain purely geopolitical. If the current confrontation widens, the deeper sectarian fault line of the Islamic world may once again shape the struggle for regional power.
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Republic-First Realism
Wars that weaken domestic legitimacy can undermine national power even if they produce battlefield success.
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The Strait That Tests an Order
Author Comment This essay explores a structural question in strategy: why major wars tend to emerge during periods of institutional strain rather than political stability. If crisis periods weaken legitimacy and intensify internal division, external conflict can become more than a geopolitical contest. It becomes a test of whether the political system itself can sustain…